Talkback: How to predict your Ironman time
Owen Barden Posts: 3
in General Chat
It looks to me as though the brackets are in the wrong place. I think it should read 186.3 + ((1.595 × PB for Olympic-distance triathlon) + (1.318 × PB for marathon)). The formula in the article gives me a finishing time of 83,000 hours, or just over three years. I don't think I can carry enough gels for that. But calculating the PB ratios first, summing them and then adding 186.3 gives me a predicted finishing time of just under 11 hours, which seems a bit more reasonable
Ironman isn't about how fast you can do shorter distances or how fast you can do the swim bike or run, it's about how fast you can do them all together.
Here's an easy way to work our your predicted Ironman time:
Take your half Ironman time, double it and add an hour if your time is under 5 hours. If it's over 5 hours, add 90 minutes.
Now, the technicall bit: If you don't own a powermeter, or ignore your powermeter, or don't know how to use your powermeter, or ignore your heart rate monitor, or believe you can race by feel and all this technobabble is rubbish, add on another 30 minutes.
If you're an alpha male and like to zoom past people on the bike, add another 20 minutes.
If you are convinced that sports nutrition is not necessary and malt loaf will do just fine, add on another 15 minutes.
If you didn't practice changing punctures, add on another 15 minutes.
If you didn't get your bike serviced and at least change your chain, add on another 10 minutes.
If you decided to ride in new shorts, or decided to save 30 seconds in transition by not putting some chamois cream on, don't add any time on, but it sure will feel like you've added 30 minutes.
If you decided to run in new shoes you bought two days earlier at the expo and tried out for a 20 minute run and they felt fine, add on another 15 minutes.
If you bought calf guards at the expo and are trying to put them on in T1, good luck to you making the cut off
I'm only being slightly tongue in cheek here
I always enjoy this question and really liked Rob;'s comments. He covered everything except of course to factor in the weather. Which you can only do on race day in the UK as its the only time you might have a chance of predicting that.... Cheers Jay